Two sentences from the same earnings release don’t seem to belong together. One says Nintendo’s Switch 2 sold far fewer consoles than it did a year ago. The other says Nintendo is sticking with a forecast that assumes it will sell millions more before spring. Read quickly, it sounds like a company in denial. Read slowly, it sounds like a company that knows exactly where the hard part is, and has chosen not to flinch about it yet. I went through the numbers line by line, and I came away with a view that sits somewhere between “the Switch 2 is stumbling” and “nothing to see here.”
The numbers, plainly
Nintendo’s fiscal year runs April to March, so this release covers the first six months of fiscal 2027. The company shipped 6.49 million Switch 2 consoles in that window, compared with 10.36 million in the same months of 2025, when the system was brand new. Split by quarter, it was 3.82 million from April to June and 2.67 million from July to September. The September quarter was down about 41% from the 4.54 million a year earlier. Add last year’s full-year total of 19.86 million and the lifetime figure stands at 26.35 million consoles.
| Period | This year | A year earlier | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr–Jun | This year3.82M | A year earlierabout 5.8M* | Changeabout −34%* |
| Jul–Sep | This year2.67M | A year earlier4.54M | Change−41% |
| Six months | This year6.49M | A year earlier10.36M | Change−37.4% |
| Full-year forecast | This year16.5M | A year earlier19.86M | Changeabout −17% |
*My arithmetic: last year’s six-month total minus last year’s September quarter. Nintendo’s numbers count units shipped to retailers, not units sold to shoppers.
That last caveat matters more than it looks. “Shipped” means Nintendo sold the console to a retailer or distributor, which usually tracks what customers buy but can run ahead of it or behind it. The release doesn’t tell us how much stock is sitting on shelves. Keep that in the back of your mind when you read the holiday section below.
So why did sales fall? Three suspects, ranked
Most headlines I saw pinned the drop on the price increase. It’s the neat explanation, and it’s partly true, but the calendar doesn’t let it carry the whole story. Here is how I rank the suspects.
Suspect one: the launch-year hangover
This is the biggest by far, and it’s the least dramatic. Last spring and summer, Nintendo was shipping a console that people had waited years for, to a base of owners who wanted it on day one. Matching that a year later was never going to happen. The first quarter shows it: 3.82 million units, down roughly a third, and no price change had reached shoppers yet. Nintendo has said launch-year sales were unusually concentrated, which is why its own forecast for this year sits about 17% below last year’s total.
Suspect two: the price increase
Nintendo announced in early May that the U.S. price was going up by $50, to $499.99, citing higher memory costs and tariffs. The new price took effect on Sept. 1, and TechSpot notes the increases in the U.S., Canada and Europe applied to only the final month of this period. So the September quarter was mostly sold at the old price. That makes it hard to say the price hike caused a 41% drop, and it also means we haven’t yet seen what the higher price does to a full quarter. I think the honest reading is that this release shows the launch hangover and says almost nothing, yet, about price sensitivity. The holiday quarter will say a lot.
Suspect three: a thin schedule of must-have games
Analysts quoted by Bloomberg, as relayed by Game Developer, pointed to the lack of blockbuster titles beyond Nintendo’s own Mario Kart World, which has crossed six million copies. I find that argument plausible but unproven. It fits a pattern I’ve noticed in Nintendo’s hardware cycles, where the console’s second year leans on a handful of big releases rather than a steady stream. I can’t measure how much of the drop it explains, and I’d be wary of anyone who claims they can. For what it’s worth, the schedule is not empty. The Ocarina of Time remake launched this week at $59.99, and I wrote about its 96 Metacritic score here.
The holiday math Nintendo is betting on
Here’s the part I haven’t seen laid out clearly elsewhere. To hit 16.5 million, Nintendo needs 10.01 million more consoles between October and March. Last year, the same six months produced 9.50 million, which is the full-year total of 19.86 million minus the 10.36 million from the first half. In plain terms, the forecast requires this holiday season, in a year when the console costs $50 more in the U.S., to beat last year’s holiday season by about 5%.
The Second-Half Test, in Four Lines
- Needed — 10.01 million consoles from Oct. to March, which is 16.5 million minus 6.49 million.
- Last year’s same stretch — 9.50 million, from last year’s total minus its first half. About 7 million of that came in the December quarter, according to CNBC’s February report.
- Gap — about 5% more than last year’s second half, at a higher price.
- Where it stands — 39% of the forecast shipped in the first half.
Is that plausible? I think it’s possible, and I’ll tell you why I don’t think it’s a bluff. First, the first half of the year is normally the soft half for a console, because the holiday quarter is where hardware makers earn their year. Second, Nintendo knows its retail orders far better than we do, and it has revisited the target since May without moving it. Companies tend to cut a forecast the moment they see it slipping, and Nintendo had a clean opportunity to do it on Nov. 5. Third, a forecast is a plan with the memory supply and the game lineup baked in. Nintendo has said that plan accounts for roughly ¥100 billion in component and tariff costs.
Still, the same logic cuts the other way. The forecast was set in May, before the price increase reached shelves. If the holiday quarter disappoints, February is when I’d expect Nintendo to trim it. A forecast that survives November isn’t the same as one that survives Christmas.
What is holding up: games, digital and profit
The console numbers got the headlines, and the rest of the release is more flattering. Switch 2 software sales rose 18.8% to 24.49 million units over the six months, and digital sales were up about 60%, according to TechSpot’s read of the results. Nintendo’s net profit rose 11% from a year earlier, helped by strong software and the latest Super Mario movie, per Engadget. The September-quarter operating profit did dip about 16%, to ¥73.9 billion. The original Switch is also still in the mix, shipping 1.27 million units over the period.
That mix is why I wouldn’t call this a bad report. Nintendo is selling fewer consoles to more engaged owners, and those owners are buying more games, more of them digitally. Digital sales are the high-margin part of the business. For a company that shipped 26 million consoles in about 16 months, a slowdown in new buyers while software keeps climbing looks a lot like a console growing up. I don’t think that’s a comfortable story for shareholders watching the unit count, but it’s a different story from failure.
Will the price go up again?
Nintendo says it isn’t planning another increase. President Shuntaro Furukawa told reporters the company is not weighing another change to the Switch 2’s price, and that it has secured enough memory to support the 16.5 million forecast. He described the memory situation as unchanged rather than improving, which is the honest way to say it. Memory costs haven’t eased. Nintendo just believes it is covered for now.
I’d take that as a statement about the next few months, not a promise. The broader supply picture hasn’t improved. Micron has said the shortage could last through 2028, which I walked through in my buy-or-hold guide, and U.S. console sales as a whole hit lows this fall that I think are really a pricing problem, not a lack of fun, as I argued here. Nintendo being comfortable on supply is good news. It doesn’t make cheaper consoles likely.
Quick answers to the questions people keep asking
Is the Switch 2 failing?
No. A console that has shipped 26.35 million units in about 16 months is well ahead of most hardware launches, including the GameCube’s lifetime total of 21.74 million. What’s happening is a sharp slowdown from an unusually strong start.
Did Nintendo cut its Switch 2 forecast?
No. A few headlines said it did, but Nintendo’s own document says the forecast is unchanged from May 8: 16.5 million consoles and 60 million games for the year.
How many Switch 2 consoles has Nintendo sold?
26.35 million shipped as of Sept. 30, 2026, based on last year’s 19.86 million plus this year’s 6.49 million.
Did the price increase cause the drop?
Partly, but not provably yet. The first quarter fell about a third before the new price took effect, and the higher price applied to only the last month of the second quarter.
If you’re deciding whether to buy one
These numbers are about Nintendo’s business, not about whether the console is right for your living room. If you’ve wanted a Switch 2 and a game you’re excited about is out now, I wouldn’t wait for a price drop. Nothing in this release or in the memory market points to one, and Nintendo has historically been slow to discount its own hardware. If you’re on the fence, the Ocarina of Time remake and Pikmin 4’s Switch 2 Edition on Nov. 12 are better reasons to buy than any earnings figure. If you’re not sure you want one at all, an owner base that’s still growing, just more slowly, isn’t a reason to rush.
I don’t think this report shows a console in trouble. It shows a console coming down from an unusual high, with a price increase that hasn’t had its real test yet. The forecast is the part to watch. Hitting 16.5 million means beating last year’s holiday stretch at a higher price, and that is a real ask. I think Nintendo gets close, and I think February is when we find out if “close” is enough.
